When people talk about the future of electric three-wheelers, the conversation usually starts with the vehicle.

Battery capacity. Motor power. Range. Price.

All of those matter.

But the longer I work around manufacturing, exports and overseas distribution, the more I believe the next phase of this industry will be decided by something larger:

the structure around the vehicle.

Manufacturing. Distribution. Local assembly. Spare parts. After-sales service. And, increasingly, localization.

That is where the market becomes much more interesting.

According to the IEA, global three-wheeler sales fell to around 4.5 million units in 2025. Electric three-wheeler sales, however, rose to more than 1.2 million units, taking their share above 25%.

So electrification is already significant.

But it is far from evenly distributed.

China, India and Türkiye still account for more than 95% of global electric three-wheeler sales. India alone has reached a point where more than two-thirds of new three-wheelers sold are electric.

Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2026

Meanwhile, many other major three-wheeler markets are still at a very different stage.

Peru is a good example. More than 53,000 trimotos were sold there in the first four months of 2026, up 37.4% year-on-year.

The important point is not that Peru will become another India. It probably won't.

The important point is that a market can already have strong three-wheeler demand, established dealers, mechanics, spare-parts channels and experienced users before electrification becomes significant.

That distinction matters.

Because the next electric three-wheeler opportunity may not always be about creating a market from zero.

In many countries, it may be about electrifying an ecosystem that already exists.

There is no single "export market"

From the manufacturing side, it is easy to think about international business in simple terms:

China manufactures.

Other countries import.

But real markets are rarely that simple.

Some countries make sense as CBU markets, where complete vehicles can be imported and distributed efficiently.

Others may move toward SKD or CKD assembly once volumes become large enough.

Some already have strong motorcycle or three-wheeler manufacturing bases, which means the role of an overseas supplier may gradually shift from supplying finished vehicles to supplying components, powertrains, battery systems or technical platforms.

And some markets may remain import-led for years because local assembly simply does not have enough scale to justify the additional investment and complexity.

That is why two countries with similar demand for three-wheelers can require completely different strategies.

The question is not simply:

"How many vehicles can we export?"

A more useful question is:

"Which parts of the value chain should stay in China, and which parts should move closer to the market?"

That is a much harder question.

But it is increasingly the right one.

Localization does not mean replacing China

This is especially important in electric vehicles because the upstream supply chain remains highly concentrated.

China accounted for more than 80% of global battery-cell production in 2025.

For electric three-wheelers, the same industrial depth also matters across motors, controllers, chargers, wiring systems and other specialized components.

Replicating that entire supply chain locally is neither easy nor always necessary.

So when people talk about localization, I do not think the future is simply:

China out, local production in.

In many markets, the more realistic model will be a redistribution of the value chain.

Key electrical components may continue to come from China.

Final assembly may move closer to the market.

Seats, tires, glass, body panels or certain metal parts may increasingly be sourced locally.

A business may begin with CBU imports, move into SKD, and eventually adopt CKD once volumes, tariffs, regulations and local capabilities justify it.

But that progression is not automatic.

CKD is not always better than CBU.

Local assembly only creates value when the market has enough volume, technical capability, supplier depth and distribution infrastructure to support it.

Otherwise, localization can simply add cost, complexity and quality risk.

That is something I think the industry should talk about more openly.

The competitive advantage is moving beyond the vehicle

From where I sit in the supply chain, one pattern keeps becoming clearer.

The electric three-wheeler business is gradually becoming less about moving a finished vehicle from Factory A to Country B.

It is becoming more about designing the right relationship between:

manufacturing, logistics, assembly, distribution, service and the local market.

That changes what competitive advantage looks like.

The cheapest vehicle will not necessarily build the strongest business.

A company with a slightly higher vehicle cost but better spare-parts availability, stronger dealer coverage, easier maintenance and the right local assembly strategy may ultimately be much more competitive.

The companies I expect to perform well over the next stage are those that can connect two things:

Chinese manufacturing efficiency

with

local market execution.

That means understanding not only how to build the vehicle, but also how it will be imported, assembled, registered, sold, serviced and maintained after it arrives.

Those capabilities are much harder to copy than a price list.

Why I am starting this newsletter

There is no single global three-wheeler market.

India is not Peru.

Peru is not Indonesia.

Indonesia is not Nigeria.

And a strategy that works in one market can easily fail in another.

But these markets are increasingly connected by the same global supply chain.

That is what I want to explore here.

In future editions, I will look more closely at three-wheelers, electric mobility, distribution models, CKD/SKD assembly, localization and the supply chains behind them, particularly across Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and other emerging markets.

Not simply from the perspective of where vehicles can be sold, but from a more practical question:

What kind of business and supply-chain structure actually makes sense in each market?

Because I believe that is where the next phase of the electric three-wheeler industry will be decided.

What are you seeing in your market?

Will electric three-wheelers remain mainly an import business, or are you already seeing the shift toward local assembly, localization and more integrated supply chains?

Originally published on LinkedIn: The Next Phase of Electric Three-Wheelers is a Supply-Chain Question

Cover photo by Timelab on Unsplash.